Project Objective

This project presents a series of data visualizations examining Canadian crude oil transportation capacity, export patterns, and associated fiscal outcomes. The central objective is to illustrate how pipeline infrastructure, export dependence on the United States, and production revenues interact within Canada's oil economy.

It does this by presenting five visual analyses covering the Enbridge Mainline, the Trans-Mountain pipeline system, the TCPL Mainline, U.S. imports of Canadian crude, and Alberta's royalty revenues. Together, these visualizations highlight how physical transport constraints, export concentration, and global demand dynamics shape the economic value of Canadian crude production.

Deliverable 1: The Enbridge Mainline — Canada's Primary Crude Export Corridor

Deliverable 2: The Trans-Mountain Pipeline — Export Routes and Market Access

The Trans-Mountain pipeline primarily supports exports to the United States, with smaller volumes serving domestic refining and overseas markets. The majority of shipments move through Sumas, the cross-border connection into Washington State, where volumes have remained relatively stable at roughly 200 thousand barrels per day, consisting largely of domestic light crude supplied to refineries in the Pacific Northwest. A smaller but steady share of shipments goes to Burnaby, which supplies the local British Columbia refinery and typically averages around 100 thousand barrels per day, with a mix that includes refined petroleum products and domestic light crude used to meet regional fuel demand. Historically, exports through the Westridge marine terminal—where crude is loaded onto tankers—were relatively limited, but the chart shows a sharp increase in shipments between 2024 and 2025, driven primarily by domestic heavy crude. This surge reflects the completion of the Trans-Mountain Expansion (TMX), which significantly increased west-coast export capacity and allows Canadian producers to access global markets beyond the United States. Overall, the data suggests that while the Trans-Mountain system has long reinforced Canada's dependence on U.S. buyers, recent capacity expansions are beginning to support greater export diversification.

Deliverable 3: The TCPL Mainline — Natural Gas Throughput and Capacity

Throughput on the TCPL Mainline consistently remains below available capacity across all regions. This suggests that natural gas transportation infrastructure is generally sufficient relative to demand. Unlike crude oil pipelines, where capacity constraints often limit exports, gas flows appear more sensitive to market demand and price cycles.

Deliverable 4: U.S. Imports of Canadian Crude — Deep Integration with U.S. Refineries

Canadian crude dominates imports into the U.S. Midwest (PADD2), where refineries are optimized to process heavy crude from the oil sands. Over time, Canadian supply has increasingly replaced imports from other countries in several regions. The data highlights the deep structural integration between Canadian producers and U.S. refining markets.

Deliverable 5: Alberta Resource Royalties — The Shift from Natural Gas to Oil Sands Revenue

Alberta's royalty revenues show a clear structural shift from natural gas–driven income in the 1990s and early 2000s to oil sands–dominated revenues in the 2010s and beyond. During the 1990s through roughly 2010, natural gas and by-product royalties made up the largest share of provincial energy revenue, reflecting strong gas production and favorable North American gas prices during that period. Beginning in the mid-2000s, however, oil sands royalties began to rise rapidly as large-scale oil sands projects expanded production. By the 2010s, oil sands royalties had overtaken natural gas as Alberta's dominant source of royalty revenue, and they continue to account for the largest share today. The overall trend also shows strong volatility, with revenues rising during periods of high oil prices and falling during market downturns, before surging again in the early 2020s with the global energy price spike. Together, these patterns highlight how Alberta's fiscal revenues have increasingly become tied to oil sands production and global oil price cycles, reinforcing the province's growing dependence on crude oil rather than natural gas for royalty income.