Canada’s Electricity Generation Mix, Emissions Trends, and Market Dispatch Dynamics

Project Objective

This project analyzes Canada's electricity sector by examining how generation sources, emissions trends, and market dispatch mechanisms shape the evolution of the country's power system. Through a series of visualizations, the analysis compares national and provincial generation mixes, tracks greenhouse gas emissions from electricity production, and illustrates how Alberta's electricity market dispatches power through the merit-order system. Together, the visualizations highlight the relationship between fuel mix, emissions reductions, and electricity market pricing dynamics in Canada's energy transition.

Deliverable 1: Electricity generation by Source – Canada and Alberta

Plot 1

Based on Plot 1, Canada's national electricity system is defined by stable total generation and a gradual shift away from coal toward cleaner energy sources. Total electricity generation has remained relatively steady at just under 600 TWh annually, indicating that national electricity demand has been broadly stable over the period shown. Within this stable total, however, the composition of generation has changed. Hydroelectric power continues to dominate Canada's electricity supply, while nuclear generation provides a consistent low-emissions baseload. At the same time, the share of coal-fired generation has declined noticeably, while natural gas and other renewable sources have gradually increased their contribution to the electricity mix. This suggests that Canada's electricity sector has been transitioning toward cleaner generation without major changes in total electricity output, reflecting both provincial coal phase-out policies and the expansion of wind and solar generation. The key takeaway is that Canada's electricity sector has reduced emissions primarily through changes in the generation mix rather than large changes in total electricity output, reinforcing the importance of energy policy and generation technology in driving decarbonization.

Plot 2

Based on Plot 2, Alberta's electricity system has undergone a major structural transition away from coal toward natural gas and renewable generation. Historically, Alberta relied heavily on coal, which accounted for roughly 80%+ of electricity generation in the early 1990s, but by 2023 coal's share had fallen to roughly 15–20% as the province implemented coal phase-out policies. This decline has largely been replaced by natural gas generation, which expanded from roughly 10–15% of generation in the early 1990s to around 55–60% by 2023, becoming the dominant electricity source in the province. At the same time, renewable generation has grown steadily since the mid-2000s, increasing from near zero around 2005 to roughly 20–25% of generation by 2023, driven primarily by wind development. Despite these major shifts in generation composition, Alberta's total electricity production has remained relatively stable at just under 60 TWh annually, representing roughly 10% of Canada's total electricity generation. Overall, this comparison illustrates how different generation mixes can maintain similar levels of electricity production, while shifting the sources used to produce that power. Alberta's transition from heavy coal reliance toward natural gas and wind generation demonstrates how the province has been able to maintain stable electricity output while adopting cleaner generation sources, aligning more closely with Canada's broader net-zero and emissions reduction goals.

Deliverable 3: Emissions from electricity generation

This deliverable examines how greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's electricity sector have evolved over time and how they are projected to change under future policy scenarios. The visualizations demonstrate how reductions in coal generation and shifts toward cleaner energy sources have contributed to a steady decline in electricity sector emissions across Canada.

Plot 1 — Electricity Sector Emissions by Province (Historical Trends)

Canada's electricity sector emissions have fallen substantially over time, driven largely by reductions in fossil-fuel generation in key provinces. Annual electricity sector emissions declined from just under 120 MtCO₂e in the mid-2000s to under 60 MtCO₂e by 2020, representing roughly a 50% reduction. Much of these emissions are concentrated in a few provinces. Alberta remains the largest contributor, accounting for approximately 40–45% of electricity sector emissions, followed by Saskatchewan at roughly 20–25%, Ontario at around 15–20%, while Manitoba and British Columbia contribute relatively small shares due to their hydro-dominated electricity systems. The provincial distribution of emissions has remained broadly consistent over time, with the largest emitting provinces continuing to dominate the national total. However, the emissions share from Quebec and Atlantic Canada has declined significantly, reflecting their increasing reliance on low-emission hydroelectric power. The key takeaway is that Canada's electricity sector emissions reductions have been driven primarily by changes in fossil-fuel generation in high-emitting provinces, highlighting the importance of provincial energy systems in shaping national outcomes. In this way, Plot 1 clearly shows that Canada's electricity sector emissions have declined sharply as fossil-fuel generation has been phased out.

Plot 2 — Electricity Sector Emissions: Historical Trends and Future Projections

Canada's electricity sector emissions are projected to continue declining significantly as the energy transition progresses. In the figure, the darker shaded area represents historical emissions, while the lighter shaded area shows projected emissions from 2023 onward under the reference case scenario. The projections indicate that national electricity emissions will fall from ~50 MtCO₂e in the early 2020s to ~10–15 MtCO₂e by the late 2030s, meaning emissions fall by roughly 70–80% over the projection period. As the transition progresses, the provincial composition of emissions is also expected to shift. While Alberta and Saskatchewan currently account for the largest share of emissions due to natural gas generation, their share of national electricity emissions is expected to gradually decline as cleaner generation expands. At the same time, the share of emissions from Quebec increases slightly within the shrinking national total, while Atlantic Canada's share continues to decline. The key takeaway is that national electricity emissions are projected to fall sharply as coal generation disappears and cleaner electricity sources expand across the country. Overall, Plot 2 reinforces the conclusion that national electricity emissions are expected to fall dramatically over the coming decades under the reference case trajectory.

Deliverable 4: The Merit Order — Electricity Market Dispatch in Alberta

This final visualization illustrates the merit-order structure of Alberta's electricity market, which determines the order in which generators are dispatched to meet demand based on their marginal costs. Lower-cost generation sources are dispatched first, while higher-cost units enter the market as demand increases. The chart shows how generation sources such as wind, hydro, and imports typically appear earlier in the supply stack, while higher-cost generation sources set the market clearing price when demand approaches system capacity. This mechanism plays a critical role in determining electricity prices and reflects how market design influences the economic incentives for different types of generation technologies.